Healthy NextGen Ratios: The 20/10/5 Framework
Your NextGen attendance numbers are not just a head count. They are a long-range forecast. The percentages you see today in your Kids, Youth, and Young Adults ministries predict what your congregation will look like in 10 to 15 years.
The 20/10/5 Framework
These targets represent the percentage of total weekend attendance that each NextGen ministry should represent in a healthy, growing church.
20%
Kids (Nursery through 5th grade)
Under 15% suggests your congregation is skewing older and is not reaching young families.
10%
Youth (Middle School through High School)
Under 7% is a warning sign. The decade between childhood and adulthood is where most churches lose people.
5%
Young Adults (Ages 18-25)
This is the hardest group to retain. Under 3% should prompt a close look at your assimilation and community strategy.
How to Calculate Yours
The Formula
(NextGen enrollment / Total weekend attendance) x 100
Run this separately for each ministry group: Kids, Middle School, High School, and Young Adults. Do not combine them or you will lose the diagnostic value.
One common trap: counting the same family multiple times. If two parents and two kids attend, that is four people in attendance. Only the two kids should count in your Kids ratio.
What to Do If You Are Off Target
Your Kids ratio is below 15%
This usually signals one of two things: your community demographics skew older, or young families are attending but not bringing their kids. Survey your young parent attenders and find out why.
Your Youth ratio is below 7%
The most common culprit is a transition failure. Kids are aging out of your children's ministry but not landing in your student ministry. See the Age-Group Transition Retention article for how to measure this.
Your Young Adults ratio is below 3%
College and post-college ministry is hard. Many young adults treat this season as optional. The churches that retain them are the ones that give them real responsibility, not just programming.
Track This With Holy Insights
NextGen ratios calculated weekly, tracked automatically.
Holy Insights breaks out each NextGen ministry separately and shows you the percentage of total attendance over time. You will know immediately when a ministry group starts to drift off target.
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